20th August 2024, Nairobi, Kenya – The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is bracing for a season of extremes as the latest forecast from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) predicts drier-than-normal conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa, while the western parts of the region are expected to experience above-normal rainfall.
The forecast for the critical October to December (OND) 2024 rainfall period highlights a stark climate divide. Southern Ethiopia, most of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania are likely to see below-normal rainfall. Southern Ethiopia and central Somalia face the highest probabilities of drought-like conditions. In contrast, areas such as southeastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, western Kenya, northern Tanzania, and southern Burundi could benefit from above-normal rains, bolstering agriculture and water resources.
The outlook signals an early to normal onset of rains in much of western Ethiopia, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and western Tanzania. However, delayed rainfall onset is anticipated in southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia, further compounding concerns over food security and water scarcity in these drought-prone areas.
Temperature projections add another layer of complexity, with warmer-than-average surface temperatures forecasted across eastern Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia. Cooler-than-average temperatures are expected in localized areas of Uganda, South Sudan, and northern Tanzania.
This dual threat of drought and deluge highlights the urgent need for coordinated, region-wide action. According to H.E. Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary of IGAD, “Food insecurity remains a critical issue for 56.5 million people in the IGAD region. Coupled with disease outbreaks and conflict, the coming climate extremes demand urgent preparedness and collaboration.”
Dr. Eng. Festus K. Ng’eno, Kenya’s Principal Secretary for the State Department of Environment, stressed the importance of early warning systems in combating the impacts of climate change: “The effectiveness of early warnings depends on our ability to act. We must reach vulnerable communities and educate them on the risks and responses.”
Echoing the need for readiness, Dr. Abdi Fidar, ICPAC’s Officer-in-Charge, stated, “Timely and reliable seasonal forecasts are key to informed planning across the region. The OND 2024 forecast calls for swift, unified action to address the potential impacts of climate variability.”
As the region prepares for a challenging season ahead, climate and development experts are urging national governments, humanitarian agencies, and local communities to rally together to mitigate the risks and ensure resilience in the face of climate unpredictability.
